I'd Bet Against a Yes Vote For Independence

With a referendum on independence becomming an increasing inevitability it's interesting to muse on the way that any vote might operate and to take a look at the numbers. Would the referendum be as simply as a majority vote? So that if 50.1% of people voted for independence, and 49.9% didn't, does that mean we shall seek independence from the rest of the UK?

Just say we get a 65% turn out, the last general election was close to 52%, that could mean that 1,280 people in Scotland, out of a potential voter's roll of just under 4 million, might potentially decide the fate of the nation.

At the last election in the constituency count the votes amassed by the SNP were 664.227, that's 17% of the entire electorate - that's still less than a third of the total votes cast. If the SNP are to achieve that 50.1% share of a 65% turnout then they will have to persuade close to 620,000 more people to vote for them, or for independence, which I agree is not quite the same thing....but it's not far off!

I'd still bet against independence being voted for.

You Couldn't Make It Up - No.1

Sleepy Holyrood lived up to its reputation yesterday when four, sad, confused MSPs voted for two candidates on the one ballot paper instead of one as they were instructed to do in the election for the Presiding Officer. They managed to spoil their ballot papers in a similar way to 140,000 of their fellow countrymen in the election two weeks earlier.

This little piggy went to market, this little piggy stayed at home.....

The Scotsman's On The Slide

According to the Scotsman this morning 'pressure on Douglas Alexander, the Scottish Secretary and the person responsible for choosing the ballot papers, increased yesterday when Sir Sean Connery called on him to resign over the problems with the Scottish election'. What bloody next - they actually pay people to write this kind of tosh. The once great newspaper is heading down the slippery slope on a daily basis. A celebrity speaks and we're supposed to listen; this kind of drivel does nothing for the Scotsman's credibility.

Update

Back from walking the dogs and I had an email in my inbox from All Media Scotand that gives the latest circulation figures for newspapers in Scotland. The Scotsman has a daily print circulation of 54,179 and the Herald 69,328. According to the email 'the figures for the Scotsman remain stubbornly downward: 3.4 per cent down, month-on-month; 12.3 per cent down, year-on-year. Its Sunday sister title, Scotland on Sunday, is down 6.7 per cent, year-on-year, and 4.5 per cent, month-on-month. Meanwhile, the year-on-year figure for The Herald is down 5.4 per cent (2.2 per cent down, month-on-month). As for its Sunday sister, the Sunday Herald, its year-on-year figure is 3.1 per cent down, year-on-year, and 0.4 per cent down, month-on-month.'

I had no idea that it was only about 1% of the population that read the Scotsman. Now I know it's not quantity but quality and I'm sure the argument is all about these people being the influential and the important in Scotland, and a lot of others read it online, but still!

Just When You Thought It Couldn't Get Any Worse

They've just announced on BBC Breakfast that the spoiled ballot papers is even worse than first thought. It's actually 142,000 or 7% of the votes cast. Too much has probably already been written about this, making further comment redundant. This is more by way of a public service announcement!

Everything You Need To Know About The Scottish Elections But Were Afraid To Ask.

Now I was supposed to be in the garden but here in the hills it's so windy that I was let off the hook by the Head Gardener. What to do thought I, a little bit of political anoraking never goes amiss. When my wife came in and saw what I was doing I was foolhardy to tell her about what another bloggers wife had said about him blogging.
"It's beneath even Morris dancing."
"Intelligent woman that." Was my wife's response.

God knows what she'll make of this? She'll probably make me sell my Steeleye Span albums!

Anyway, here's some things about the election that I bet you're absolutey bursting to know. And if you're not......

• Share of Total Constituency votes
SNP 657,148 – 32.7%
Labour 648,406 – 32.3%
Conservatives 334,742 – 16.7%
Lib Dems 326,229 – 16.2%
Others 42,317 – 2.1%

• The Conservatives out polled the Lib Dems in 39 (53%) out of 73 Constituencies

• Labour out polled the SNP in 41 (56%) out of 73 Constituencies

• The Conservative polling the most votes was Jackson Carlew in Eastwood (14,186)

• Andy Kerr polled the most Labour votes in any constituency (15,334)

• In Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine Mike Rumbles polled the most votes of any Liberal Democrat (14,314)

• John Swinney not only polled the most votes of any SNP MSP at 18,281, but he polled more than any other MSP

• The SNP had the top four polling MSPs. Besides Swinney, there was Fergus Ewing (16443), Stewart Stevenson (16,031) & Andrew Welsh (15,686)

• In all 73 constituencies the SNP polled 8,742 more votes than Labour, but if you take away those top four seats where the SNP annihilated Labour in the remaining 69 seats Labour polled 629,438 votes to the SNPs 590,707.

• Of the party leaders Alex Salmond got the most votes in their constituency, which conclusively proves that the Alex Salmond for First Minister worked!
Alex Salmond - 14,560
Jack McConnall - 12,574
Nicol Stephen - 10,843
Annabel Goldie - 8,289

• Of the main parties the worst performing in terms of number of votes were.
Conservative Western Isles 752
Labour in the Shetlands 670
LibDem Western Isles 852
SNP in Ayr 873

• In only 9 out of the 73 constituency did a candidate trounce their opponents by getting more than 50% of the votes. Tavish Scott in the Shetlands was the most overwhelming where he got almost 67% of the votes cast (but that hardly counts!). Elsewhere Stewart Stevenson (SNP) in Banff & Buchan got almost 59%.The most trouncing of Tories was John Lamont who got 54% in Roxburgh & Berwickshire and Paul Martin (Labour) in Glasgow Springburn took nearly 57%. Bizarrely Wendy Alexander who the BBC were predicting might be under threat took over 52%.

Little Cousin Robin

Tavish Scott, the brain (is that true? – Ed) behind the smiling Stephen Nicol, said on the TV today that the Lib Dems wouldn't do a deal with Labour on a coalition, but would entertain the SNP. To be fair they are sticking to their guns (at the moment) on no referendum, Meanwhile the Greens have said there is no barrier to co-operating with Alex Salmond's party and have not ruled out a formal coalition deal. None that is, except the small matter of the SNP not being in favour of onshore windfarms. I suppose now that Shona Baird has lost her seat (she has a wind farm on her family farm that makes her a pretty penny) they maybe able to come to some agreement.

No Mandate for Breaking Up The Union

According to this story in Scotland on Sunday Labour party lawyers are planning to contest the result in Cunninghame North, which the SNP won by just 48 votes, giving them a one-seat victory. There were an estimated 1000 spoiled ballot papers. According to Independent candidate Campbell Martin: "There were discrepancies of around 100 votes between those that were counted in Arran and those that were counted in Irvine [where the count was held]. The Labour candidate's agent said: "I have written to the returning officer asking that we can manually inspect the ballot papers. I expect to see that the vast number of them show that people made the mistake of voting for Labour but then not voting for the candidate." Campbell Martin added. "A lot of people saw the Scottish Labour party on the regional list and thought to themselves that they were voting for Allan Wilson. People were so confused. So many of them voted on the regional list but left the constituency one blank."

Obviously the fiasco across the entire country is an embarrassment to Scotland, the Executive, the Scotland Office and everyone else who had a hand in the election organization, but given the closeness of the vote in Cunninghame North I would be doing the same if I were Labour.

When I looked at the ballot paper, which had the regional list on the left hand side and the constituency vote on the right, I remarked that it was a strange layout. We're not in Japan, we read from left to right and so in my view logic dictates that that the constituency would go on the left. Apparently failure to mark a constituency vote is what accounted for a vast amount of the spoiled papers. In this case the Executive, the Scotland Office et al have something to answer for.

Naturally the SNP are griping about Labour's "sour grapes at losing". However, the only loser in this election is democracy. How many people have failed to have their postal vote count? We have no idea. There are people who definitely didn't get their postal vote; some like me who got them late would have been unable to vote - I was just lucky that my trip to Berlin was cancelled.

Given the closeness of the contest it's no wonder that this is happening. On the comments section of the Scotsman there's a heavy dose of SNP rhetoric about Labour being a pain for complaining. If the situation was in reverse the words SNP could be substituted within the report for Labour. The fact is that this is indicative of what we can expect for the next four years. More arguments about constitutional issues rather than the substantive issues of running the country. With the SNP clearly wanting to march on with their victory tucked underneath their arm, claiming that Scotland has spoken, with Salmond wanting to assume the mantle of First Minister and getting on with the drive towards independence none of this is surprising. We are a nation divided between separation and unionist philosophies and this will be the recurring theme of the next four years whether the anyone likes it or not. All the while the business of government will suffer and Scotland instead of getting better will become bogged down in the mire of separation.

The election was no SNP landslide, whatever they say. They were so far ahead in the polls for such a long time that there’s no doubt frustration that at the end of it all, even with the democratic balls-up that the actual election became, they still only just squeezed home. Yes the SNP got 38,000 more votes across Scotland on the regional list, but in the SNP heartland of N.E Scotland alone they got 53,000 more. When all is said and done the SNP took just 31% of the list votes – that’s no mandate for breaking up the Union. Add to this the Salmon's little problem with the fundamentalist wing of his party and it could make the in fighting between old Labour and Nu-Labour look like the teddy bear's picnic. The honeymoon will soon be over and King Alex may be glad he held onto his seat at Westminster.

Memo to the Leader of the SNP. Just how many days are you going to spend in Westminster? Why do you consider the job of First Minister a part time appointment? Oh the fun we're all going to have.

Welcome to the Pressure Dome

It this morning Scotsman they point out that. “IT WAS, by common consent, a lacklustre campaign dogged by indecision and division. Faced with a slick, professional, fleet-footed Nationalist team, Labour's 2007 Holyrood effort often appeared leaden and flat-footed. The Scottish National Party had finally managed to turn the tables on its arch enemy, out "New Labour-ing" New Labour.” Even so the Labour vote went up in the regional list votes from 561,000 to 595,000 – not bad for a party that is doing so badly in the opinion polls. Blair and Brown would give their political souls for performance like that if they called a snap General election this week.
While it is true what the Scotsman have said it’s also slightly unfair and more than slightly daft. Given that Labour are more unpopular in the polls than they’ve ever been, right across the UK, is it surprising? Added to which it’s not as though the election campaign is all that a party in power is measured on. It is a fact of political life that the incumbent is judged more on their period in power. The advantage of opposition has always been that you are unencumbered by your failures because you are largely free from the burden of delivery. This is what’s dogged the LibDems, they are not really the opposition because they’ve been identified as part of the problem and not the solution.
For the SNP, and two jobs Salmond, life in the in the intense white light of the 24 hour spotlight that is trained on power is just beginning. Commentators were quick to talk of his statesman like demeanor, both yesterday and of late. Once again that’s the easy bit.
Now we can all just it back, relax and enjoy the flight as we watch the SNP deal with the realities of power. Getting there is hard enough and all credit to them for that. Staying there and performing 24/7 is a whole lot different. Unlike opposition there’s nowhere to hide. And while Alex Salmond and the rest of the SNP will be relishing the opportunity they’ll do well to remember that two thirds of the country didn’t vote for them and will be all too quick to remind them.

The Salmon is Gutted

Listening to Alex Salmond on the BBC Scotland News tonight I was struck by his ability to spin this election result his way. Well he would wouldn't he? He said Scotland had voted for a wind a change to blow through the political arena. Of course by definition this means independence. Yet less than a third of the population voted for the SNP, the only major pro independence party in Scottish politics. Well over half of the rest of the population voted for one of the other three, pro-unionist, parties. In crude terms this says Scotland does not want independence and while the vote for the SNP was, on the face of it, a vote for an independent Scotland it was as much as anything a vote for giving Labour a kick.

Clearly a vote for the Lib Dems wasn't going to achieve that, they were part of the constipated coalition. A vote for the Tories would mean people having to hold their breath, cross their fingers, and say the equivalent of three political Hail Mary’s. The SNP was the only way to register a vote for change from the present administration. Even so around 30,000 more people voted for Labour this time than last time - so what does that tell you?

I was struck watching Sarah Boyack, Derek Brownlee and Tavish Scott on Channel 4 News just how much more fun it would be for their three parties to join forces. The will of the Scottish people is not in favour of what Alex Salmond is peddling, the will is for the Union. As Sarah Boyack said, just how much of this parliament’s time is going to be taken up with Alex and the SNP picking fights with London.

If I were the Tories I'd do a deal with Labour and the Lib Dems. I'd shaft the Salmon. Screw his protestations about the people having spoken. They haven't spoken in his favour. It's a missed opportunity for the SNP – they’ll never be in this position again. For all the Salmon’s bluster he must be gutted.

The End of Socialism As We Know It?

Just how bad did the SSP do in Scotland? Well last time they hoovered up 128,026 votes giving them not far short of 7% of the votes cast. This time they got just 12,731, marginally over half of one per cent. Now we all now that Tommy Sheridan was the acceptable face(are you sure you mean this? - Ed) of the SSP and in his new guise as the Solidarity Party he managed 31,066 votes (1.5%). Therefore putting the two sets of votes together they still only managed 43,797, a shade over 2% and a drop of almost 66%.

Is this the end of Tommy Sheridan? Well I guess if he doesn't get done for perjury he'll still have trouble climbing back out of the hole of his and his left wing loony party friends and enemies own making.

Just The Beginning

The Borders Party under the leadership of Nicholas Watson has won two seats at the Scottish Borders Council. The position is

Conservative - 11
Lib Dems - 10
SNP - 6
Boders Party - 2
Independents - 5

The achievement of the Borders party is amazing. From a standing start to win two seats in an election, which had many problems, is a brilliant achievement. Make no mistake this is the beginning of a new era in not just Borders politics but possibly local government politics in Scotland. If the BP had won just one seat then it could not call itself a party within the SBC; it would effectively be just another independent. With a duo to carry the message of what is right for the Borders, rather than what is right for the big party machines it will be a fascinating four years.

This is just the start - thinking local, and acting local is the new black.

List Votes

With three of the eight regional list votes declared it's perhaps surprising that the Labour vote has actually increased from 262,313 to 271,276. The share is marginally down from 35.9% to 35.3. Given that this includes Glasgow and Central Scotland perhaps this is not too surprising. The SNP vote has massively increased from 142,539 to 222,095 a jump in share from 19.5% to 28.9%. The Lib Dems and the Conservatives show little change. The big losers are the SSP, a drop close to 60,000 votes. Solidarity (Sheridaninanity) picked up close to 17,000 of these but the rest have almost all gone to the SNP. The Greens have lost close to 15,000 so far, two percentage points on the share.

The implication from the Greens leader is they've been disproportionably hurt by the spoiled papers.

Update. With five regions in the situation is the Labour vote is up with a net gain pf around 25,000 votes, which gives them another 0.1% of the share of the vote. The problem for them remains the fact that the SNP have polled an additional 137,500 votes and increased their share by almost 9.5% of the vote. The fact remains that Labour have still polled almost 50,000 more list votes than the SNP. Both the Tories and the Lib Dems slightly down on the list vote. SSP meltdown continues and the Greens are in freefall too.

There’s little doubt in my mind that the ‘Alex Salmond for First Minister’ listing on the ballot form has had a hugely positive effect on the SNP vote.

BBC Election Coverage

The BBC have been quick to complain about the election shambles yet on their web site they had, for about an hour this morning, the list results for the South of Scotland showing that the SNP have taken all seven seats. This has since been taken down but they are still showing it as a fact in their overall seats table. When I saw it I thought this has to be completely wrong - thank goodness it looks like it isn'y true!This is the BBC web site an hour or so later still showing the SNP having won all seven seats on the South of Scotland list. The hypocrisy of their bleating over the shambles last night will hopefully come home to roost. The coverage on the BBC's election programme was amateurish in the extreme. The 'on screen' ticker that ran across the screen was childish at times and told us nothing. It was a case of we have the technology and we're gonna use it.

Add to this the fact that Brian Taylor was talking about the Greens doing quite well, because the polls failed to pick up the differences at the margins. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that they would be squeezed out. The BBC in Scotland's political coverage is all too cosy.

Scottish Election Update

It's 3.30 a.m. Watching the BBC Scotland election coverage I'm struck by a number of things.

The most obvious thing is the shambolic arrangements over the count. Spoiled ballot papers could amount to 100,000 across Scotland. My sense is that is maybe ten times more than usual

My prediction that the Greens will be squeezed look likes it's coming true.

The animosity displayed between the parties represented in the studio is as bad as I have ever witnessed. Admittedly it's mostly between the SNP and Labour; even allowing for the adrenalin running hot.

The BBC are saying it's going down to the wire, the result will be that close. My late run by Labour prediction seems to be coming true.

Update of the Update....

05.10 John Lamont has won for the Tories in our local constituency (Roxburgh & Berwickshire). A massive swing!!

The Buddha's of Berwickshire

Yesterday I may have sustained the first injury of this election campaign while delivering leaflets for the Borders Party. Unforgiving letterboxes skinned the circled knuckle; mostly I have to say in Coldstream. I had no idea that letterboxes could inflict such a level of hurt. Even allowing for the fact that I'm a man, according to my wife we have a much lower pain threshold (something about that's why men'll never have children), it BLOODY hurts. I have a new respect for Posties. Do they wear special gloves that protect the knuckles or do they just become more used to it? Maybe they're just tougher than me.

I found myself grading letterboxes. Those at the bottom of the door, with a spring mechanism flap and an inner set of draft excluding brushes with a spring loaded back flap are the devil's work. Houses with no letterboxes are a challenge (that includes our own house) and houses with white tin boxes, with 'Postes' on the front, that are attached to a wall, as well as a letter box are equally confusing. Where do you stick your flyer? Does anyone actually unlock the box on a daily basis?

I only met one grumpy person; he was sitting in his garden as I approached. "Yes?"
"I have a leaflet for the Borders Party."
"Don't bother leaving it."
He was English. I felt like saying why don't you shove off back to England with your snooty manners. I can say this because with a name like Havers I'm clearly English too. I've always had this theory that English people who come to Scotland and complain about anti-English feeling are the sort of people who would find life difficult even if they moved to Moreton-in-the-Marsh or Chipping Sodbury.

Walking around Coldstream, Swinton (a decent lunch at the Wheatsheaf revived us), Leitholm, Eccles and Birgham was mostly lovely. The weather perked up around lunchtime and the smell of the blossom on the trees in both Eccles and Birgham was at times almost overpowering. I hardly saw a badly kept front garden, although I was shocked at the amount of aggregates that are employed as a ground cover. One garden had so many ornaments, statues and such that it looked like the Last Emperor meets Bambi. Added to which in the borders stone Buddha’s appear to be the new garden gnomes.

Do leaflets do any good? Who really knows? It's one of those better to be doing something than nothing kind of things. In life I'm a great believer in positive energy really does make things happen. The worst thing of all is to say after the event - if only.

Another Term For the Constipated Coalition?

According to the Scotsman/ICM poll this morning the seats the parties are forecast to win on Thursday is The SNP would have 43 seats to Labour's 42, with the Liberal Democrats on 23, the Conservatives on 17, the Greens with one and the others three. It bears out my Labour late run prediction, and the Greens being squeezed but doesn't show an improvement in the Tories which I've anticipated up to now. Labour broadcast a really hard-hitting election broadcast last night promoting the Doomsday scenario' of an SNP victory. Some of what they were saying would struggle to bear scrutiny if the Advertising Standards Commission became involved.

The closeness of the poll makes for interesting reading in the light of Nicol Stephens remarks about only forming a government with the majority party. I've never actually believed that, but then again he is a Lib Dem. I still can't see why people would vote for them if they're cross with Labour, apart from the obvious reasons of being cross with Labour in Westminster. The Lib Dems have been a part of the constipated coalition at Holyrood - they have to take their share of the blame. Perhaps Stephen Nicol having so many photo ops with his children has melted the voter’s hearts.

If, and it's a big if, a Labour/Lib Dem coalition should be returned to power I think we shall see years of nonsense from this inept, second rate bunch of so called politicians who would find it hard to get a job in the real world. If I were in a constituency where the SNP had a chance of winning or a region where I thought they could get a list seat I would have voted for them, despite my anti independence feelings. I don't think independence will ever happen, but at least it would stir up the stagnant waters of Scottish politics

Poster Placement & Polling

On my debut as a poster putter upper I found out something startling, well moderately interesting anyway. The plastic ties used to attach the posters to the poles don't fit around telegraph polls very easily, they are better suited to lamp posts - hence the unseemly rush and often over crowding to be found on our rural lamp posts. Another factor is the placement of the posters to get maximum impact, that is to say not on a pole where cars are speeding up. Height, angle and obscuration (an interesting American use of the verb - to obscure) by blossom also plays a part.

So complex is this subject of poster postioning that I think there may be a market for a book on the subject prior to the general election. It's the sort of thing that might become a political 'Eats, Shoots and Leaves'. In the meantime I'm off to Coldstream to distribute leaflets this morning; I'll report back as to how this part of my electioneeing edication goes.

If Politics Were Bras

Gordon Broon has revealed that Robbie Coltrane, the actor who plays Hagrid in the Harry Potter films, Archie McPherson, the football commentator, Michael Shea, the Queen's former press secretary, and Muriel Gray, the broadcaster, were among 17 Scots revealed to be backing Labour.

Oh PLEASE! As if these people know any better than the rest of us. Has he asked Kylie who she backs? How about Angelina? The list also includes Michelle Mone, the bra entrepreneur - now Labour need an uplift in the polls but I'm not sure she's the one to do it. If politics were bras then the SNP are a 38dd and Labour a 32a.

Electioneering We Will Go

Yesterday I did my first ever overt political act. I put up campaign posters for the Borders Party. It was a beautiful day to drive around mid Berwickshire and I even went down a road I've never driven down before - for those who don't live in the Borders you have to know that there aren't that many roads. We were only accosted once, by a lady who said, "You're not putting that sign up so that I have to stare at it all day are you?" It turned out to be a rhetorical question. I would have argued with her but my co-sign putter upper is clearly more cut out for politics than I am and he agreed we'd move it.

Anyway I urge any of you reading this who live in the Borders to vote for the Borders Party. We need a return to local politics that truly represent the views of local people not a bunch of small time national figures that are either in training for sleepy Holyrood or on the road to nowhere.

SNP - One Trick Too Many

I've just received my postal ballot papers. I was originally going to be in Berlin this week, leaving yesterday, so my ballot papers would have arrived too late - the trip was cancelled.

I am staggered by the way the form is laid out. The myriad choices of who to vote in the regional election is headed by a party called 'Alex Salmond For First Minister'. This is of course the SNP, but because of some bizarre ruling, I assume it is anyway; they don't have to call themselves the SNP. I wouldn't mind if I were voting specifically for a First Minister, but of course I'm not. The list of potential MSPs on the notice of names of candidates for Southern Scotland are the people we are voting for. While this is clearly OK under whatever laws govern such things it is hardly the way a political party should be behaving, is it?

Then again with the Salmon's pronouncements over the last few days he's clearly not above double standards. Clever it might be, clever he may be, but last time Alex Salmond was at Holyrood trying to rationalise the radical leftist views of his party with the irrational right wing conservative element he gave up and headed to Westminster. Perhaps that is why he's not resigned his Westminster seat, just in case it all starts going horribly wrong.

I've always suspected that the SNP are a bit of a one trick party, with Nicola as an able, feisty support act. This kind of brings home the point even more. The next six months will be fascinating