Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Another Term For the Constipated Coalition?

According to the Scotsman/ICM poll this morning the seats the parties are forecast to win on Thursday is The SNP would have 43 seats to Labour's 42, with the Liberal Democrats on 23, the Conservatives on 17, the Greens with one and the others three. It bears out my Labour late run prediction, and the Greens being squeezed but doesn't show an improvement in the Tories which I've anticipated up to now. Labour broadcast a really hard-hitting election broadcast last night promoting the Doomsday scenario' of an SNP victory. Some of what they were saying would struggle to bear scrutiny if the Advertising Standards Commission became involved.

The closeness of the poll makes for interesting reading in the light of Nicol Stephens remarks about only forming a government with the majority party. I've never actually believed that, but then again he is a Lib Dem. I still can't see why people would vote for them if they're cross with Labour, apart from the obvious reasons of being cross with Labour in Westminster. The Lib Dems have been a part of the constipated coalition at Holyrood - they have to take their share of the blame. Perhaps Stephen Nicol having so many photo ops with his children has melted the voter’s hearts.

If, and it's a big if, a Labour/Lib Dem coalition should be returned to power I think we shall see years of nonsense from this inept, second rate bunch of so called politicians who would find it hard to get a job in the real world. If I were in a constituency where the SNP had a chance of winning or a region where I thought they could get a list seat I would have voted for them, despite my anti independence feelings. I don't think independence will ever happen, but at least it would stir up the stagnant waters of Scottish politics


Ellee said...

I wonder how many Lib Dem votes are actually protest votes, this is what Conservatives need to firm up on and entice those voters back.

Richard Havers said...

I think more and more Lib Dem votes are because people feel they can't find anyone else to vote for - it's not a positive vote for the Liberals. It seems to me that politics is increasingly about finding who you can kind of put up with rather than feeling enthusiastic about a party. It's a lot to do with the malaise in our society. We've become a nation of putter up withs and 'it'll do'. It's just anything to jog along.

Not much of a way to lead a life is it? Or run a country.

ChrisD said...

Ellee, I think it is getting increasingly hard for the Libdems in Scotland to sell themselves as a protest vote after 8 years of coalition government in Holyrood. Will be very interesting to see what happens on Thursday, do they end up propping up a smaller increasingly unpopular Labour party, or do they jump straight into bed with the SNP if they become the biggest party?
And will some people who voted Libdem rather than Labour to keep the SNP out feel short changed?
Either way they can't push the "plague on both your houses" protest vote any more. More importantly it is beginning to drive home a message of "vote Libdem and get Labour" which might count against them come the next GE up here.
As a Scottish tory I would have to say the best outcome politically for us is another 4 years of Lab/Libdem coalition.

Fitaloon said...

I will be able to vote Conservative across the board where I live and feel it will not be a wasted,I could not vote Lib Dem as a protest as they have colluded with Labour for too long, Voting for the SNP is going to be the way to register a protest and get a change across Scotland where voting tactically is required. Then once independence has been thrown out, we can get back to sensible politics.

Richard Havers said...

Chrisd I think this might mark something of a watershed for the Lib Dems. They are damned whatever they do. They will be bullied by the SNP if they do a deal with them, and it'll be the same ol' same ol' if they get back into the Labour hot bed. What's going to be interesting is how close the vote might be, which will see the Lib Dem's trying to extract every last concession imaginable.

I think for the long term they will be seen for what they are, a party that’s a cheap date.

ChrisD said...

Richard, some of the dissenters within the usual cabal were quick to criticise Annabel Goldie's decision not to do any coalition deals, but rather vote issue by issue.
I think that she has been incredible canny from the start of this campaign, costed spending plans that stood up to scrutiny, positive solutions to bread and butter issues instead of negative scaremongering or the Independence card.
But refusing to do deals on coalitions behind closed doors was principled and meant that the party will work for the people who voted for them, and Goldie has shown that she is looking beyond this campaign to the future continued recovery of the conservative party at Holyrood and Westminister.

Richard Havers said...

Chris I was very critical over AG early on, both in her term as leader and at the start of the election. I was wrong. I think you're absolutely right in what you say and I think this is the beginning of a revival. I hope so, not just because I've always been a Tory at heart, but also because it's good for politics.

Having said that she should never have abseiled on that rope today. Poor choice of things to do. But somehow common sense eludes politicians when there are cameras around.

ChrisD said...

On the decision to abseil down a rope today, just remember Carol Thatcher on "I'm a celebrity get me out of here".
That "can do" attitude is what is needed in Scottish politics, we have seen things become so stale, just occasionally it is great to see a politician take a risk in front of the cameras.
The funny thing is that she comes across as someone who would have a go.
Listening to the experts being snotty about it tonight on Newsnight, all I could think about was their constant whinging about an election which had not caught the imagination. They are the so called experts, so it will be interesting to see if voter turnout goes up tomorrow? Sorry, but the poor quality and unimaginative political coverage offered up as "the voice of Scotland" in our media is a sore point with me.
The media tarts are too close to the politicians and it really demeans the coverage they give sometimes!

Richard Havers said...

Chris, that was my point on the rope incident. The media are such a negative bunch that it just provides the excuse they need. I totally agree on the cosy 'special relationship' that exists between the Scottish media, especially the BBC, and Scottish politicians. There is no attempt at decent coverage. Brian Taylor is a joke. Glen Campbell is irritating. Did you see the piece on the 6.30 news about how to fill out the ballot papers? It was beyond belief.