The Tram To Gala - Stop the Madness

In my absence in London two things have happened. This blog is a year old and the great railway debate here in the Borders has entered another phase. It was one of the first things I posted about back in March 2007 saying.

"The train has been approved by a parliament anxious to be seen to be doing the right thing. However, I’m prepared to wager it will not be built. The costs that have been forecast are woefully inadequate for the job and I reckon we will get to the point where someone is going to question the budget overruns that will soon start to be mentioned. We cannot have another Holyrood fiasco."

In 2000 the costs of restoring a railway to Tweedbank in the Scottish Borders was estimated at £73m. When MSPs voted to restore it in 2006 the costs quoted were £155m. Next we were told that the costs will be £178M - but don't worry. According to local MSP Jeremy Purvis "detractors of the rail project had been proved wrong, and maintained: It will be delivered on time and on budget." Apparently the reason for the increase in the last year are due to a, "much more detailed technical assessments. These identified that significantly more work was required on structures such as bridges and tunnels than originally estimated. In addition, costs have increased due to general increases in track, signalling, earthworks and other factors such as environmental mitigation, some land acquisition and design and management. In addition to inflation, there are also new costs such as landfill tax that has now been built into the revised cost estimate.

So first of all we now have it onfirmed the start of the work on the 31-mile line will be delayed at least a year to 2010, and it would not be finished until 2013 – two years later than expected. Sorry Mr. Purvis your first mistake. He's now saying "I do not believe the government's heart is in the project. If it was, they would have used traditional funding methods. People in the Borders will not forgive the SNP if this jeopardises the Borders railway." You're probably wrong again we might be very glad it's scrapped and for another very good reason.

The scheme, previously estimated to cost some £175 million (£217 million at 2012 prices) is now expected to reach £235 (295 million at 2012 prices). According to the SNP Transport Minister Stewart Stevenson (no stranger to controversy) the cost had increased because of additions such as an extra station at Stow. Increasing land costs and extra strengthening work on bridges on the line, which closed in 1969, had further increased the total. Interestingly most of those excuses have already been used.

Our former illustrious leader Jack McConnell called it - “the tram to Gala" and my bet is the tram'll still come off the tracks. But nothing will happen unless we have proper leadership and government. It's all very well people sniping at each other but this is a poorly conceived idea, it's been poorly managed to date and it's still nowhere near starting. Does anyone really think it will stop at £235 million in today's prices? It's highly likely that the blame game will continue while we all suffer - and especially us in the Borders who will end up paying for it. Come 2012, or whenever it finishes, then the over run will be hotly debated, most of those involved in government will have moved on and then we'll have a public inquiry to apportion blame and so forth (further costs of £5, £10, £15 million in expensive lawyers and QCs)

Even on the previous construction costs it was going to take something over 31 years just to repay the capital costs of construction. That's without paying a penny towards finance costs or operating costs.

Stop the madness Now...

Scottish Borders Council Fudging the Issue

According to the BBC, Scottish Borders Council (SBC) has set up a new group under a local councillor to "tackle the shortage of affordable homes in the Scottish Borders.". The report says "average property prices were now running at eight times the average salary in the area. The proposed reopening of the Waverley Line has also driven up housing demand." It goes onto say that Eyemouth has seen some of the sharpest increases in the UK with prices rising 82% in three years.

Well Eyemouth is 48 miles and around an hour and twenty minutes away from the central Borders terminus of the Waverley Line, so the railway has little or no affect on prices. The fact is that house prices in many areas of the Borders are driven by four factors. The ease of commuting to Edinburgh (by road), the attractiveness of the lifestyle, coupled with prices, for people moving from the south of England in particular and the opportunity for people to buy second properties here in the Borders for holiday homes. Last, but by no means least, is the fact that the ripple effect from Edinburgh as people move out to get cheaper housing has driven prices at a faster rate, off the lower base price that Border's housing enjoyed (?) for many years.

According to the councillor in charge of the new group. "The average income has to be multiplied by eight times to allow somebody to buy a house round here given the average house prices. We are going to have a wide-ranging look at what other people in other parts of the country are doing. We're going to get examples of best practice and nothing is off the table, in coming back to council, so that we can get some fresh ideas and see what we can do to make a real difference to this major problem."

Well good luck, but unless the council take control of the supply of affordable rental housing then there's little hope of any change. Developers who are building new homes for sale have no imperative to supply affordable housing, whatever that means, and so in general bigger, more profitable housing is built.

As for the railway line boosting things it's even more doubtful that it is going to be built. Having said that nothing is slowing down the expenditure on the project by SBC, a burden on the taxpayer and a diversion from the real problem. Meanwhile the Scottish government is saying no more money can be allocated to the project. All this is against a background of everyone knowing that the budgeted figures are way too low. It is disingenuous of the council to be ploughing ever onwards, probably diverting money from other schemes across the Borders, to support the white elephant of a railway line that is unfit for purpose.

What a Way to (try) and Run a Railroad

Transport Minister Stewart Stevenson has said plans to reopen the Waverley line by 2011 were "not achievable" due to a financial shortfall. Now there’s a surprise!

He’s also said that the burden would now fall on Scottish Borders and Midlothian councils to fill the funding gap. Well there’s another surprise. David Parker, the independent leader of Scottish Borders Council has said they had given as much funding to the scheme as it could.

Naturally the LibDems are blowing hard, but their little scheme to get the railway reopened was one of the factors that saw Euan Robson lose his seat to Tory, John Lamont.

John Swinney said “…it is becoming clear that the original cost estimates were overly ambitious - that is a product of the way in which the project has come forward and been managed by the previous administration. What the government has done is reaffirm a financial commitment that was given by the previous government and we have set out what needs to be done to ensure the railway can take its course. According to the Scottish Borders Council if the Executive doesn’t foot the bill it will collapse.
As I’ve posted before, this scheme has been doomed from the start. It’s been poorly managed, ill thought out, improperly costed and its passenger forecasts are hopelessly ambitious.

In my view the reopening of the Waverley Line will never happen. In the process many families have seen their property values plummet, there’s been uncertainty and a great deal of anguish for many people as a result of the numpties in Holyrood and the junior numpties at Newtown St. Boswells (Borders Party excepted).

For more see here and here

An Administration in Training

The Waverley line is back in the BBC news with Christine Graham the SNP MSP for the South of Scotland saying. "What the SNP is opposed to is that particular railway link (the airport line) - not a link between Edinburgh and the airport, but the route that particular line is taking, The bill for that line is at least £750m and rising. As far as I'm concerned the threat to the Borders line is if this particular £750m link were to press ahead."

She said it would be possible to build a rail link to Edinburgh Airport, which was much cheaper. It is hoped the line 35-mile Waverley line between Edinburgh and Tweedbank will reopen to trains by 2011.

The problem is that the cost of the Borders line has already officially been raised to £170 million, not the £155M as reported by the BBC and unofficially it's at £200M. As with all projects these days it seems impossible for the real cost to be given anywhere close to the outset of planning it, nor when it is approved or before it has been started. You'd have think we'd have learnt our lessons by now. If it weren't so serious it would be laughable.

p.s. Another example of BBC News poor standard of Scottish reporting

Mystery Train

Last train on the Waverley Line in 1969
In The Scotsman today there's a letter questioning the numbers on which the reopening of the Waverley Line has been based. Principal amog them is The 750,000 car journeys that Holyrood were told would be taken off the roads from the 22,000 commuters who live in Midlothian and the Borders.

Thisrelates to slightly over 1,440 people a (working) day using the train service to get to work in Edinburgh from the Borders and Midlothian. So roughly 6.5% of commuters will get out of their cars andd onto the trains

The economic case for the railway showed it making an operating loss even after five years. To me the case seems very flimsy - even allowing for tourists and other one off trips. As an estimate revenue from the commuters might amount to £5.5 million per year (£15 return fare) - they say £6.17m after five years. Even at their estimates after five years the line will still be making an operating loss. On current cost forecasts for building the railway that amounts to something over 31 years just to repay the capital costs of construction.

Why would we build something to lose money? I know the environmental arguments but surely we should be planning something 'fit for purpose' that makes money? This project is all about the Lib Dems pushing for it along with a Scottish Borders Council who want house building in the central Borders